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Throttur R. vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Throttur R.

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vestri

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.2%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.7%1-17.8%1-24.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-19.4%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.6%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-18.2%4+-24.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 62.5% 1.60 -7.8%

Draw 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Away win 20.2% 24.4% 4.10 -10.3%

Over 2.5 65.6% 72.5% 1.38 -9.5%

Over 3.5 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

BTTS 61.6% 70.4% 1.42 -12.5%

Home O1.5 60.6% 70.4% 1.42 -14.0%

Away O1.5 36.3% 42.6% 2.35 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1✓ 7.8%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur R.2.4

Vestri1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR R. · PPG 2.17

VESTRI · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Throttur R. (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -7.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

Vestri (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur R. face Vestri in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur R. a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Vestri 20%, so Throttur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Throttur R. and 1.2 for Vestri (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur R. are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.20 for Vestri. This match finished 1-1.

Throttur R. vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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