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Honka vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 13:00

Honka

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

EBK

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.3%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.9%1-16.3%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.9%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.3%4+-110.7%4+-24.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.1% 90.9% 1.10 -27.3%

Draw 19.6% 11.8% 8.50 +40.0%

Away win 14.4% 5.9% 17.00 +86.9%

Over 2.5 64.6% 83.3% 1.20 -22.5%

Over 3.5 42.2% 69.4% 1.44 -39.2%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 68.8% 90.1% 1.11 -23.6%

Away O1.5 27.9% 25.0% 4.00 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -24.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 66% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honka2.7

EBK0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HONKA · PPG 1.67

EBK · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Honka (H) 66.1%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -27.3%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +40.0%

EBK (A) 14.4%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +86.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honka face EBK in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honka a 66% chance, the draw 20% and EBK 14%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Honka and 0.8 for EBK (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honka are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for EBK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +86.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Honka vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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