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Rochedale vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 09:00

Rochedale

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Peninsula

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.6%0-25.4%0-35.5%0-4+9.0%1 1-01.6%1-15.0%1-27.6%1-37.7%1-4+12.6%2 2-01.1%2-13.5%2-25.3%2-35.4%2-4+8.8%3 3-00.5%3-11.6%3-22.5%3-32.5%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.0% 22.7% 4.40 -15.1%

Draw 18.8% 23.8% 4.20 -12.6%

Away win 64.2% 63.7% 1.57 +0.8%

Over 2.5 73.6% 70.4% 1.42 +4.5%

Over 3.5 54.4% 48.8% 2.05 +11.5%

BTTS 63.6% 69.0% 1.45 -7.8%

Home O1.5 46.9% 39.2% 2.55 +19.6%

Away O1.5 77.8% 70.4% 1.42 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob63.6%

A 64% / xG 1.4-3.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.7%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 1–4 5.9%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 0–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochedale1.4

Peninsula3.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEDALE · PPG 1.50

PENINSULA · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Rochedale (H) 17.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -15.1%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.6%

Peninsula (A) 64.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochedale face Peninsula in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochedale a 17% chance, the draw 19% and Peninsula 64%, so Peninsula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rochedale and 3.1 for Peninsula (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochedale are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Peninsula. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Rochedale vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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