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APIA Leichhardt vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 08:00

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 2.78 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Manly Utd

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.4%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-19.2%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-16.7%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-15.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 71.4% 1.40 -19.8%

Draw 22.4% 23.1% 4.33 -1.8%

Away win 20.3% 16.7% 6.00 +13.1%

Over 2.5 54.0% 63.7% 1.57 -15.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 40.8% 2.45 -21.1%

BTTS 51.3% 58.8% 1.70 -12.8%

Home O1.5 60.4% 69.4% 1.44 -13.0%

Away O1.5 27.9% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt2.1

Manly Utd0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 2.78

MANLY UTD · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.78) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.8%

Manly Utd (A) 20.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt face Manly Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Manly Utd 20%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for APIA Leichhardt and 0.8 for Manly Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 0.78 for Manly Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 2-0.

APIA Leichhardt vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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