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Sutherland S. vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:30

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.2%0-27.3%0-33.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.3%1-111.6%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 23.8% 4.20 +45.3%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 41.1% 58.8% 1.70 -30.1%

Over 2.5 59.9% 62.5% 1.60 -4.2%

Over 3.5 36.1% 40.8% 2.45 -11.6%

BTTS 60.0% 65.4% 1.53 -8.2%

Home O1.5 42.6% 36.4% 2.75 +17.2%

Away O1.5 49.8% 61.7% 1.62 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -13.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.0%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 5.8%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland S.1.3

APIA Leichhardt1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.33

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland S. (H) 34.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +45.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

APIA Leichhardt (A) 41.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland S. face APIA Leichhardt in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland S. a 35% chance, the draw 24% and APIA Leichhardt 41%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sutherland S. and 1.6 for APIA Leichhardt (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland S. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for APIA Leichhardt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Sutherland S. vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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