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Manly Utd vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:00

Manly Utd

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

SD Raiders

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.6%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.4%1-112.5%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.0%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 48.8% 2.05 -6.7%

Draw 26.7% 29.9% 3.35 -6.3%

Away win 27.8% 31.3% 3.20 -6.6%

Over 2.5 50.7% 56.5% 1.77 -10.3%

Over 3.5 29.3% 34.7% 2.88 -9.4%

BTTS 55.6% 62.5% 1.60 -11.0%

Home O1.5 43.2% 51.8% 1.93 -16.6%

Away O1.5 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -13.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0✓ 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd1.4

SD Raiders1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD · PPG 1.60

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.3%

SD Raiders (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd face SD Raiders in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd a 46% chance, the draw 27% and SD Raiders 28%, so Manly Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Manly Utd and 1.1 for SD Raiders (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.22 for SD Raiders. This match finished 1-0.

Manly Utd vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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