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APIA Leichhardt vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 06:15

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 2.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rockdale

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.3%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.1%1-19.2%1-25.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.0%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-16.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 1.68 -9.3%

Draw 22.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 23.8% 4.10 -1.5%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.45 -7.1%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.15 -14.4%

BTTS 60.6% 1.44 -12.7%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.50 -9.1%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.45 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.6%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt2.1

Rockdale1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 2.80

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.80) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -9.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Rockdale (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt face Rockdale in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Rockdale 24%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for APIA Leichhardt and 1.1 for Rockdale (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 1.70 for Rockdale.

APIA Leichhardt vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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