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NWS Spirit vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-114.7%0-27.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.1%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.5%2-16.2%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 2.00 -22.0%

Draw 32.0% 3.20 +2.4%

Away win 29.0% 3.55 +1.8%

Over 2.5 37.3% 1.85 -31.0%

Over 3.5 18.6% 3.10 -25.4%

BTTS 48.1% 1.67 -19.7%

Home Over 1.5 32.5% 1.95 -36.6%

Away Over 1.5 29.4% 2.85 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

H 39% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–0 14.1%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit0.9

Wollongong W.1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.50

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.0%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.4%

Wollongong W. (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Wollongong W. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Wollongong W. 29%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for NWS Spirit and 1.0 for Wollongong W. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.55 for Wollongong W.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.4%.

NWS Spirit vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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