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Marconi S. vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 05:00

Marconi S.

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Blacktown City

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.7%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-18.3%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-16.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Draw 21.5% 24.4% 4.10 -7.1%

Away win 19.5% 15.6% 6.40 +14.9%

Over 2.5 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Over 3.5 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 60.6% 67.6% 1.48 -10.3%

Away O1.5 22.9% 27.0% 3.70 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 160 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.2.3

Blacktown City0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.50

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.9%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.1%

Blacktown City (A) 19.5%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face Blacktown City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Blacktown City 20%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Marconi S. and 0.8 for Blacktown City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Marconi S. vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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