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UNSW vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 05:00

UNSW

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.0%0-26.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.0%1-112.7%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.4%2-18.1%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.7%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 2.45 -11.3%

Draw 25.2% 3.35 -9.3%

Away win 38.7% 2.55 -1.3%

Over 2.5 51.8% 1.80 -6.8%

Over 3.5 29.5% 3.00 -6.9%

BTTS 53.3% 1.62 -13.7%

Home Over 1.5 43.1% 2.10 -9.5%

Away Over 1.5 38.9% 2.35 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.3%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.3

Sutherland S.1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.90

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.90) > Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.3%

Sutherland S. (A) 38.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Sutherland S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Sutherland S. 39%, so Sutherland S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for UNSW and 1.3 for Sutherland S. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.55 for Sutherland S..

UNSW vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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