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SD Raiders vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

St George City

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.2%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.1%1-112.8%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.8%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 2.55 +14.0%

Draw 27.8% 3.20 -6.6%

Away win 27.6% 2.55 -17.8%

Over 2.5 47.4% 1.83 -13.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% 3.10 -8.1%

BTTS 48.1% 1.62 -22.1%

Home Over 1.5 43.2% 2.30 -0.6%

Away Over 1.5 31.7% 2.30 -27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.4

St George City1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.20

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +14.0%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.6%

St George City (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face St George City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 45% chance, the draw 28% and St George City 28%, so SD Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SD Raiders and 1.0 for St George City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.75 for St George City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.0%.

SD Raiders vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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