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Perth RedStar vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 07:00

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Knights

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.8%0-23.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.0%1-110.7%1-26.3%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.0%3-15.9%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 25.4% 33.3% 3.00 -14.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

BTTS 60.6% 69.4% 1.44 -12.7%

Home O1.5 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Away O1.5 32.0% 44.4% 2.25 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth RedStar1.8

Western Knights1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.25

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Perth RedStar (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Western Knights (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth RedStar face Western Knights in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth RedStar a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Western Knights 25%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Perth RedStar and 1.2 for Western Knights (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth RedStar are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.83 for Western Knights. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Perth RedStar vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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