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Joondalup City vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Semi-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 07:00

Joondalup City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Armadale

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.9%0-22.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.1%1-16.9%1-25.9%1-33.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-26.9%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.8%3-16.4%3-25.5%3-33.1%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.7%4+-25.6%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 21.7% 4.60 +136.0%

Draw 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -11.8%

Away win 28.6% 63.7% 1.57 -33.1%

Over 2.5 72.5% 69.4% 1.44 +4.4%

Over 3.5 50.8% 46.9% 2.13 +8.2%

BTTS 67.8% 64.5% 1.55 +5.1%

Home O1.5 66.3% 37.7% 2.65 +75.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 71.4% 1.40 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob67.8%

H 51% / xG 2.4-1.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Joondalup City2.4

Armadale1.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JOONDALUP CITY · PPG 1.50

ARMADALE · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Joondalup City (H) 51.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +136.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.8%

Armadale (A) 28.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Joondalup City face Armadale in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Joondalup City a 51% chance, the draw 20% and Armadale 29%, so Joondalup City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Joondalup City and 1.7 for Armadale (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Joondalup City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Armadale. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +177.6%.

Joondalup City vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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