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Bayswater City vs Olympic Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Quarter-finals ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 11:00

Bayswater City

PPG 2.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Olympic Kingsway

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.6%0-22.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.7%1-18.1%1-25.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.8%3-16.8%3-24.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.5%4+-24.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 41.7% 2.40 +34.2%

Draw 20.5% 29.4% 3.40 -18.2%

Away win 23.6% 40.0% 2.50 -24.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 52.4% 1.91 -14.1%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 66.3% 59.9% 1.67 +10.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 54.6% 1.83 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater City2.2

Olympic Kingsway1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER CITY · PPG 2.64

OLYMPIC KINGSWAY · PPG 2.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater City (H) 55.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +34.2%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.2%

Olympic Kingsway (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater City face Olympic Kingsway in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater City a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Olympic Kingsway 24%, so Bayswater City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Bayswater City and 1.4 for Olympic Kingsway (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater City are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 2.36 for Olympic Kingsway. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +34.2%.

Bayswater City vs Olympic Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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