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Perth RedStar vs Perth Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Quarter-finals ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 11:00

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Perth

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.0%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.8%1-110.3%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 38.2% 2.62 +8.2%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 35.6% 45.5% 2.20 -21.7%

Over 2.5 64.5% 69.4% 1.44 -7.1%

Over 3.5 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Away O1.5 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth RedStar1.7

Perth1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.00

PERTH · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Perth RedStar (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +8.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Perth (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth RedStar face Perth in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth RedStar a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Perth 36%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Perth RedStar and 1.5 for Perth (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth RedStar are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.73 for Perth. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.8%.

Perth RedStar vs Perth Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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