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Armadale vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 07:00

Armadale

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fremantle City

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.0%0-22.4%0-31.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-02.0%1-14.8%1-25.7%1-34.5%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.4%2-15.8%2-26.9%2-35.4%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.9%3-14.6%3-25.5%3-34.3%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.9%4+-25.8%4+-34.6%4+-4+4.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 48.8% 2.05 -11.2%

Draw 20.5% 26.3% 3.80 -13.3%

Away win 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

Over 2.5 75.0% 80.0% 1.25 -6.3%

Over 3.5 54.4% 63.7% 1.57 -14.6%

BTTS 65.7% 82.0% 1.22 -19.9%

Home O1.5 68.8% 66.7% 1.50 +3.2%

Away O1.5 68.3% 59.9% 1.67 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob65.7%

H 43% / xG 2.4-2.4 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 2–1✓ 5.8%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 1–1 4.8%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Armadale2.4

Fremantle City2.4

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.0% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARMADALE · PPG 1.40

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Armadale (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -11.2%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.3%

Fremantle City (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Armadale face Fremantle City in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Armadale a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Fremantle City 36%, so Armadale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Armadale and 2.4 for Fremantle City (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Armadale are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.17 for Fremantle City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Armadale vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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