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Valentine vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 06:30

Valentine

PPG 0.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 90.2% vs bookmaker-implied 84.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.9%0-27.2%0-38.9%0-4+21.7%1 1-00.9%1-13.3%1-26.1%1-37.6%1-4+18.4%2 2-00.4%2-11.4%2-22.6%2-33.2%2-4+7.8%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.7%3-30.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.9% 11.8% 8.50 +5.8%

Draw 18.9% 18.2% 5.50 +2.4%

Away win 68.1% 80.0% 1.25 -14.9%

Over 2.5 73.8% 78.1% 1.28 -5.5%

Over 3.5 54.4% 60.2% 1.66 -9.7%

BTTS 60.6% 66.7% 1.50 -9.1%

Home O1.5 33.7% 29.9% 3.34 +12.6%

Away O1.5 90.2% 84.0% 1.19 +7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob60.6%

A 68% / xG 0.8-3.7 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.9%

#2 0–4 8.3%

#3 1–3 7.6%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 1–4 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine0.8

Broadmeadow3.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.8% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.20

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 12.9%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +5.8%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +2.4%

Broadmeadow (A) 68.1%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Broadmeadow in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Broadmeadow 68%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Valentine and 3.7 for Broadmeadow (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.50 for Broadmeadow. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Valentine vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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