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Napoli vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Napoli

PPG 2.47 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lazio

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-17.8%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-111.0%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-17.7%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-13.6%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Draw 27.4% 26.3% 3.80 +4.1%

Away win 14.7% 14.1% 7.10 +4.4%

Over 2.5 31.3% 45.5% 2.20 -31.1%

Over 3.5 13.6% 23.8% 4.20 -42.9%

BTTS 32.2% 43.5% 2.30 -25.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.2%

H 58% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 0–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 13.9%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napoli1.4

Lazio0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPOLI · PPG 2.47

LAZIO · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs P(Home)=57.8%

Win probability 1X2

Napoli (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +4.1%

Lazio (A) 14.7%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napoli face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napoli a 58% chance, the draw 27% and Lazio 15%, so Napoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Napoli and 0.6 for Lazio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napoli are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.13 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Napoli vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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