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Italy - Serie A Saturday, April 18, 2026 16:00 
Napoli PPG 2.47 
Lazio PPG 1.13
Italy - Serie A Saturday, April 18, 2026 16:00 Napoli PPG 2.470-2 MISS
Lazio PPG 1.13Away· +4.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 31.3% Odds: 2.20 -31.1%
Over 3.5 13.6% Odds: 4.20 -42.9%
BTTS 32.2% Odds: 2.30 -25.9%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-0 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-1 ✘
5th 0-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Napoli 1.40
Lazio 0.56
Model Suggestion
Home -13.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -13.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+4.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+4.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 60 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 42%
O2.5/Under 55%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 53%
ROI -26.7%
Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs P(Home)=57.8%