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Kriens vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:30

Kriens

PPG 2.77 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Luzern B

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 97.2% vs bookmaker-implied 84.0% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.4%1-10.9%1-20.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-01.0%2-12.2%2-22.3%2-31.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.7%3-13.6%3-23.9%3-32.7%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-118.5%4+-219.7%4+-313.9%4+-4+12.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.8% 73.5% 1.36 +9.9%

Draw 9.4% 20.2% 4.95 -53.5%

Away win 9.8% 17.5% 5.70 -44.1%

Over 2.5 97.2% 84.0% 1.19 +15.7%

Over 3.5 92.2% 62.5% 1.60 +47.5%

BTTS 87.4% 75.2% 1.33 +16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)5.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob87.4%

H 81% / xG 5.0-2.1 / O2.5 97% / BTTS 87%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 4.8%

#2 5–2 4.7%

#3 4–1 4.5%

#4 5–1 4.5%

#5 3–2 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kriens5.0

Luzern B2.1

COMBINED 7.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 97.2% · O3.5 PROB 92.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KRIENS · PPG 2.77

LUZERN B · PPG 0.69

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.77), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kriens (H) 80.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +9.9%

Draw 9.4%

ODDS 4.95 · IMPLIED 20.2% EV -53.5%

Luzern B (A) 9.8%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV -44.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kriens face Luzern B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kriens a 81% chance, the draw 9% and Luzern B 10%, so Kriens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.0 for Kriens and 2.1 for Luzern B (7.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 97% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 87% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kriens are averaging 2.77 points per game versus 0.69 for Luzern B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Kriens vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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