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Bavois vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Bavois

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

UPCOMING

Bulle

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.5%0-24.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.4%1-19.9%1-27.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.4%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

Draw 23.4% 26.7% 3.75 -7.3%

Away win 35.8% 37.0% 2.70 -3.3%

Over 2.5 62.7% 77.5% 1.29 -19.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 55.2% 1.81 -27.2%

BTTS 61.5% 75.2% 1.33 -18.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 63.7% 1.57 -21.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bavois1.8

Bulle1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BAVOIS · PPG 1.56

BULLE · PPG 1.71

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bavois (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -14.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.3%

Bulle (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bavois face Bulle in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bavois a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Bulle 36%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bavois and 1.5 for Bulle (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bavois are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.71 for Bulle.

Bavois vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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