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Paradiso vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Paradiso

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

UPCOMING

Bellinzona

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.2%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.7%1-110.1%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.4%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Draw 23.4% 29.4% 3.40 -12.3%

Away win 24.0% 33.3% 3.00 -16.8%

Over 2.5 61.1% 59.9% 1.67 +2.0%

Over 3.5 38.4% 38.6% 2.59 -0.5%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 42.6% 2.35 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paradiso1.9

Bellinzona1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PARADISO · PPG 0.93

BELLINZONA · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paradiso (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.3%

Bellinzona (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paradiso face Bellinzona in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paradiso a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Bellinzona 24%, so Paradiso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Paradiso and 1.2 for Bellinzona (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paradiso are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.06 for Bellinzona. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Paradiso vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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