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Breitenrain vs Luzern II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Breitenrain

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

UPCOMING

Luzern II

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.9%0-22.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.3%1-16.9%1-25.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-18.4%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.2%3-16.8%3-25.4%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.3%4+-25.8%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Draw 20.1% 26.7% 3.75 -14.8%

Away win 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -7.6%

Over 2.5 68.8% 73.5% 1.36 -6.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 58.5% 1.71 -15.5%

BTTS 65.1% 76.9% 1.30 -15.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 71.4% 1.40 -7.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.2% 1.81 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob65.1%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 1–2 5.6%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breitenrain2.4

Luzern II1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BREITENRAIN · PPG 1.69

LUZERN II · PPG 1.18

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Breitenrain (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.7%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -14.8%

Luzern II (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breitenrain face Luzern II in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breitenrain a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Luzern II 27%, so Breitenrain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Breitenrain and 1.6 for Luzern II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breitenrain are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.18 for Luzern II.

Breitenrain vs Luzern II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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