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Bayswater vs Dianella WE Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 11:00

Bayswater

PPG 2.33 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Dianella WE

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.0%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.4%1-15.8%1-23.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.3%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.9%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-111.5%4+-27.5%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 60.6% 1.65 +2.0%

Draw 19.1% 25.6% 3.90 -15.3%

Away win 19.1% 25.0% 4.00 -14.2%

Over 2.5 65.4% 71.4% 1.40 -8.4%

Over 3.5 46.8% 52.4% 1.91 -10.6%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 74.3% 71.4% 1.40 +4.0%

Away O1.5 32.0% 38.2% 2.62 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 62% / xG 2.9-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater2.9

Dianella WE1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER · PPG 2.33

DIANELLA WE · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=61.8%

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +2.0%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -15.3%

Dianella WE (A) 19.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater face Dianella WE in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Dianella WE 19%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Bayswater and 1.3 for Dianella WE (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Dianella WE. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 4-3.

Bayswater vs Dianella WE Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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