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Cooks Hill Utd vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 10:00

Cooks Hill Utd

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.2%0-22.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-02.3%1-15.2%1-25.8%1-34.3%1-4+4.1%2 2-02.8%2-16.2%2-27.0%2-35.2%2-4+4.9%3 3-02.2%3-15.0%3-25.6%3-34.2%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-15.3%4+-25.9%4+-34.4%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 35.7% 2.80 +31.0%

Draw 19.8% 28.6% 3.50 -18.4%

Away win 33.4% 47.6% 2.10 -29.9%

Over 2.5 73.6% 73.5% 1.36 +0.1%

Over 3.5 54.4% 55.2% 1.81 -1.5%

BTTS 65.7% 76.9% 1.30 -14.6%

Home O1.5 68.8% 54.9% 1.82 +25.2%

Away O1.5 68.3% 64.5% 1.55 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob65.7%

H 47% / xG 2.4-2.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 1–2✓ 5.8%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cooks Hill Utd2.4

Belmont Swansea2.2

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COOKS HILL UTD · PPG 1.60

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Cooks Hill Utd (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +31.0%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.4%

Belmont Swansea (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cooks Hill Utd face Belmont Swansea in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cooks Hill Utd a 47% chance, the draw 20% and Belmont Swansea 33%, so Cooks Hill Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cooks Hill Utd and 2.2 for Belmont Swansea (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cooks Hill Utd are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.60 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +45.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Cooks Hill Utd vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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