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Gold C. Knights vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 09:30

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Olympic FC

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.7%0-21.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-02.7%1-14.9%1-24.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.9%2-17.0%2-26.3%2-33.8%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.7%3-16.6%3-26.0%3-33.6%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-19.4%4+-28.5%4+-35.1%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 51.3% 1.95 +8.6%

Draw 20.8% 26.7% 3.75 -13.2%

Away win 23.5% 31.3% 3.20 -14.9%

Over 2.5 74.5% 70.4% 1.42 +5.8%

Over 3.5 54.4% 48.8% 2.05 +11.5%

BTTS 65.7% 72.5% 1.38 -9.3%

Home O1.5 72.8% 62.5% 1.60 +16.5%

Away O1.5 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.7%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.8 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.0%

#2 3–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights2.8

Olympic FC1.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.00

OLYMPIC FC · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +8.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.2%

Olympic FC (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Olympic FC in Australia - Queensland NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Olympic FC 24%, so Gold C. Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Gold C. Knights and 1.8 for Olympic FC (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Olympic FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 5-2.

Gold C. Knights vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland NPL Predictions