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Eastern Suburbs vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 09:30

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Moreton City E.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.5%0-22.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-02.7%1-15.8%1-26.2%1-34.4%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.1%2-35.1%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.4%3-15.1%3-25.5%3-33.9%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-15.1%4+-25.4%4+-33.9%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 40.0% 2.50 +19.3%

Draw 20.2% 25.0% 4.00 -11.5%

Away win 32.1% 44.4% 2.25 -27.8%

Over 2.5 73.6% 76.9% 1.30 -4.3%

Over 3.5 54.4% 56.5% 1.77 -3.7%

BTTS 65.7% 78.1% 1.28 -15.9%

Home O1.5 68.8% 59.9% 1.67 +14.9%

Away O1.5 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob65.7%

H 48% / xG 2.3-2.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.7%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Suburbs2.3

Moreton City E.2.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.80

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Suburbs (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +19.3%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.5%

Moreton City E. (A) 32.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Suburbs face Moreton City E. in Australia - Queensland NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Suburbs a 48% chance, the draw 20% and Moreton City E. 32%, so Eastern Suburbs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Eastern Suburbs and 2.1 for Moreton City E. (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Suburbs are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Moreton City E.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Eastern Suburbs vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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