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Rochedale vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, June 3, 2026, 10:00

Rochedale

PPG 1.20 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Magic United

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.1%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.8%1-17.4%1-25.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.8%3-25.3%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.1%4+-25.4%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 63.7% 1.57 -17.7%

Draw 20.7% 23.1% 4.33 -6.2%

Away win 26.8% 23.1% 4.33 +9.6%

Over 2.5 65.4% 76.9% 1.30 -15.0%

Over 3.5 46.8% 55.6% 1.80 -15.8%

BTTS 63.6% 74.1% 1.35 -14.1%

Home O1.5 68.8% 73.5% 1.36 -6.4%

Away O1.5 44.6% 45.5% 2.20 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.6%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochedale2.4

Magic United1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEDALE · PPG 1.20

MAGIC UNITED · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Rochedale (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.7%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.2%

Magic United (A) 26.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochedale face Magic United in Australia - Queensland NPL on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochedale a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Magic United 27%, so Rochedale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Rochedale and 1.5 for Magic United (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochedale are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Magic United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Rochedale vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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