Today / Chile - Primera B / Antofagasta vs CD Santa Cruz

Antofagasta vs CD Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Antofagasta

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

CD Santa Cruz

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.9%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-17.3%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.9%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-19.3%4+-24.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 59.5% 1.68 +2.1%

Draw 21.3% 26.3% 3.80 -11.4%

Away win 17.9% 23.8% 4.20 -14.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Over 3.5 46.4% 40.0% 2.50 +16.0%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 61% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–1✓ 7.3%

#4 3–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antofagasta2.6

CD Santa Cruz0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 2.40

CD SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Win probability 1X2

Antofagasta (H) 60.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +2.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.4%

CD Santa Cruz (A) 17.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antofagasta face CD Santa Cruz in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antofagasta a 61% chance, the draw 21% and CD Santa Cruz 18%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Antofagasta and 0.9 for CD Santa Cruz (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antofagasta are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.17 for CD Santa Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Antofagasta vs CD Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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