Today / Brazil - Serie B / Ponte Preta vs Botafogo SP

Ponte Preta vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 11 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 22:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Botafogo SP

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-114.7%0-29.6%0-34.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.3%2-15.7%2-23.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.3%3-11.7%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 36.5% 2.74 -13.3%

Draw 28.2% 34.5% 2.90 -10.9%

Away win 43.5% 36.2% 2.76 +20.1%

Over 2.5 46.7% 42.6% 2.35 +9.8%

Over 3.5 27.8% 23.1% 4.33 +12.2%

BTTS 51.5% 52.4% 1.91 -1.6%

Home O1.5 21.9% 34.7% 2.88 -22.2%

Away O1.5 37.5% 34.7% 2.88 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.5%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 11.3%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.9

Botafogo SP1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.80

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.80), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 28.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -13.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.9%

Botafogo SP (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Botafogo SP 44%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ponte Preta and 1.3 for Botafogo SP (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.80 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Ponte Preta vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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