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Mariupol vs Viktoriya M. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 10:00

Mariupol

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Viktoriya M.

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-111.7%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-17.7%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 27.7% — — —

Over 2.5 43.2% — — —

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 31.8% — — —

Away O1.5 25.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 42% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariupol1.1

Viktoriya M.1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIUPOL · PPG 1.36

VIKTORIYA M. · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Mariupol (H) 42.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Viktoriya M. (A) 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariupol face Viktoriya M. in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariupol a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Viktoriya M. 28%, so Mariupol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mariupol and 1.0 for Viktoriya M. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariupol are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.93 for Viktoriya M.. This match finished 2-0.

Mariupol vs Viktoriya M. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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