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M. Kharkiv vs UCSA Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 10:00

M. Kharkiv

PPG 1.21 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

UCSA

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-111.5%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.8%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.7%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 57.1% 1.75 -22.5%

Draw 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

Away win 26.0% 22.7% 4.40 +8.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Over 3.5 15.4% 25.8% 3.88 -24.1%

BTTS 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Kharkiv1.2

UCSA0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

M. KHARKIV · PPG 1.21

UCSA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

M. Kharkiv (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -22.5%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.5%

UCSA (A) 26.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Kharkiv face UCSA in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Kharkiv a 44% chance, the draw 30% and UCSA 26%, so M. Kharkiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for M. Kharkiv and 0.9 for UCSA (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Kharkiv are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.14 for UCSA. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-0.

M. Kharkiv vs UCSA Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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