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Vorskla Poltava vs Podillya K. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 10:00

Vorskla Poltava

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Podillya K.

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.3%0-112.2%0-23.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.4%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-16.2%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 55.6% 1.80 -23.9%

Draw 33.5% 31.3% 3.20 +7.2%

Away win 24.2% 25.6% 3.90 -3.4%

Over 2.5 34.0% 51.5% 1.94 -34.0%

Over 3.5 18.6% 29.2% 3.42 -21.8%

BTTS 45.5% 55.6% 1.80 -18.1%

Home O1.5 26.8% 51.8% 1.93 -29.0%

Away O1.5 13.3% 27.9% 3.58 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.3%

#2 1–0 19.5%

#3 1–1✓ 12.4%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vorskla Poltava1.0

Podillya K.0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VORSKLA POLTAVA · PPG 1.29

PODILLYA K. · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Vorskla Poltava (H) 42.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -23.9%

Draw 33.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +7.2%

Podillya K. (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vorskla Poltava face Podillya K. in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vorskla Poltava a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Podillya K. 24%, so Vorskla Poltava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Vorskla Poltava and 0.6 for Podillya K. (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.93 for Podillya K.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Vorskla Poltava vs Podillya K. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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