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Chernihiv vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 10:00

Chernihiv

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Inhulets

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-114.3%0-27.6%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.7%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.0%2-16.4%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% — — —

Draw 31.5% — — —

Away win 35.5% — — —

Over 2.5 41.3% — — —

Over 3.5 14.4% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chernihiv0.9

Inhulets1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERNIHIV · PPG 1.38

INHULETS · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Chernihiv (H) 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Inhulets (A) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chernihiv face Inhulets in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chernihiv a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Inhulets 36%, so Inhulets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Chernihiv and 1.1 for Inhulets (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chernihiv are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.43 for Inhulets. This match finished 1-2.

Chernihiv vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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