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Ahrobiznes V. vs Chernihiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 10:00

Ahrobiznes V.

PPG 2.21 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Chernihiv

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-110.2%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.5%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.7%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 29.2% — — —

Away win 22.7% — — —

Over 2.5 34.0% — — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — — —

BTTS 46.9% — — —

Home O1.5 34.8% — — —

Away O1.5 15.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.9%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0✓ 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ahrobiznes V.1.2

Chernihiv0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AHROBIZNES V. · PPG 2.21

CHERNIHIV · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Ahrobiznes V. (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chernihiv (A) 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ahrobiznes V. face Chernihiv in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ahrobiznes V. a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Chernihiv 23%, so Ahrobiznes V. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ahrobiznes V. and 0.7 for Chernihiv (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ahrobiznes V. are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 0.93 for Chernihiv. This match finished 1-0.

Ahrobiznes V. vs Chernihiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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