Today / Ukraine - Persha Liga / Chornomorets vs M. Kharkiv

Chornomorets vs M. Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 10:00

Chornomorets

PPG 2.36 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

M. Kharkiv

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-17.6%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-110.8%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-17.8%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-13.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 76.9% 1.30 -32.0%

Draw 27.1% 23.1% 4.33 +10.4%

Away win 20.6% 11.2% 8.90 +50.0%

Over 2.5 43.2% 54.6% 1.83 -20.9%

Over 3.5 22.5% 33.7% 2.97 -19.9%

BTTS 46.7% 45.5% 2.20 +2.7%

Home O1.5 42.0% 65.8% 1.52 -36.2%

Away O1.5 10.6% 15.6% 6.40 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.7%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 14.1%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chornomorets1.4

M. Kharkiv0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHORNOMORETS · PPG 2.36

M. KHARKIV · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

Chornomorets (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -32.0%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +10.4%

M. Kharkiv (A) 20.6%

ODDS 8.90 · IMPLIED 11.2% EV +50.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chornomorets face M. Kharkiv in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chornomorets a 52% chance, the draw 27% and M. Kharkiv 21%, so Chornomorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chornomorets and 0.6 for M. Kharkiv (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chornomorets are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.21 for M. Kharkiv. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Chornomorets vs M. Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ukraine - Persha Liga Predictions