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UCSA vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

UCSA

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Inhulets

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.0%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 54.1% 1.85 -13.1%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 28.4% 27.8% 3.60 +1.3%

Over 2.5 55.9% 51.3% 1.95 +9.0%

Over 3.5 35.4% 34.7% 2.88 +1.9%

BTTS 55.3% 60.6% 1.65 -8.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Away O1.5 34.4% 32.9% 3.04 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCSA1.6

Inhulets1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UCSA · PPG 1.56

INHULETS · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UCSA (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -13.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Inhulets (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCSA face Inhulets in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCSA a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Inhulets 28%, so UCSA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UCSA and 1.2 for Inhulets (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCSA are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.23 for Inhulets. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-2.

UCSA vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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