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Metal Kharkiv vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:45

Metal Kharkiv

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Nyva Ternopil

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.8%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.2%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.1%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 49.5% 2.02 -12.1%

Draw 27.2% 32.1% 3.12 -9.1%

Away win 29.3% 28.6% 3.50 +1.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 49.2% 48.5% 2.06 +1.4%

Home O1.5 33.4% 43.3% 2.31 -22.9%

Away O1.5 27.0% 28.8% 3.47 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1✓ 13.2%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metal Kharkiv1.2

Nyva Ternopil1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

METAL KHARKIV · PPG 1.42

NYVA TERNOPIL · PPG 1.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Metal Kharkiv (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -12.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -9.1%

Nyva Ternopil (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metal Kharkiv face Nyva Ternopil in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metal Kharkiv a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Nyva Ternopil 29%, so Metal Kharkiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Metal Kharkiv and 1.0 for Nyva Ternopil (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metal Kharkiv are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.28 for Nyva Ternopil. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Metal Kharkiv vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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