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SK Poltava vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 12:00

SK Poltava

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

UPCOMING

Inhulets

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-18.4%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.4%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.1%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 57.8% 1.73 -10.0%

Draw 25.3% 30.3% 3.30 -9.9%

Away win 22.7% 25.0% 4.00 -5.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.2% 2.92 -9.7%

BTTS 49.9% 58.5% 1.71 -14.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 56.2% 1.78 -29.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 30.5% 3.28 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SK Poltava1.5

Inhulets0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SK POLTAVA · PPG 1.36

INHULETS · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SK Poltava (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.9%

Inhulets (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

SK Poltava face Inhulets in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SK Poltava a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Inhulets 23%, so SK Poltava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for SK Poltava and 0.9 for Inhulets (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SK Poltava are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.45 for Inhulets.

SK Poltava vs Inhulets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ukraine - Persha Liga Predictions