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UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:00

UCSA

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nyva Ternopil

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.9%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 43.3% 2.31 +4.2%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 28.5% 33.9% 2.95 -9.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 0.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCSA1.5

Nyva Ternopil1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UCSA · PPG 1.29

NYVA TERNOPIL · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UCSA (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.31 · IMPLIED 43.3% EV +4.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

Nyva Ternopil (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCSA face Nyva Ternopil in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCSA a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Nyva Ternopil 28%, so UCSA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for UCSA and 1.2 for Nyva Ternopil (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCSA are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.19 for Nyva Ternopil.

UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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