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Prykarpattia vs Probiy Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 13:00

Prykarpattia

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Probiy Horodenka

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.2%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 56.2% 1.78 -19.7%

Draw 28.2% 30.8% 3.25 -5.0%

Away win 26.7% 24.1% 4.15 +6.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 26.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prykarpattia1.3

Probiy Horodenka1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PRYKARPATTIA · PPG 1.18

PROBIY HORODENKA · PPG 1.05

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Prykarpattia (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -19.7%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.0%

Probiy Horodenka (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.15 · IMPLIED 24.1% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prykarpattia face Probiy Horodenka in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prykarpattia a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Probiy Horodenka 27%, so Prykarpattia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Prykarpattia and 1.0 for Probiy Horodenka (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prykarpattia are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.05 for Probiy Horodenka.

Prykarpattia vs Probiy Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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