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Prykarpattia vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Prykarpattia

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

UPCOMING

Oleksandria

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.5%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.0%1-112.0%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 29.4% 3.40 +32.9%

Draw 24.7% 33.3% 3.00 -15.5%

Away win 36.2% 50.0% 2.00 -27.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 27.9% 3.58 +13.5%

BTTS 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 32.3% 3.10 +23.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 48.5% 2.06 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prykarpattia1.4

Oleksandria1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PRYKARPATTIA · PPG 1.44

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Prykarpattia (H) 39.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +32.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.5%

Oleksandria (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prykarpattia face Oleksandria in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prykarpattia a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Oleksandria 36%, so Prykarpattia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Prykarpattia and 1.3 for Oleksandria (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prykarpattia are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.64 for Oleksandria. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +49.5%.

Prykarpattia vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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