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Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Probiy Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

UPCOMING

Probiy Horodenka

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.4%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-111.9%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.0%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 57.1% 1.75 -9.0%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Over 2.5 52.2% 48.1% 2.08 +8.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 47.7% — — —

Away O1.5 26.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ahrobiznes Volochysk1.6

Probiy Horodenka0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AHROBIZNES VOLOCHYSK · PPG 1.75

PROBIY HORODENKA · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Probiy Horodenka (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ahrobiznes Volochysk face Probiy Horodenka in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ahrobiznes Volochysk a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Probiy Horodenka 24%, so Ahrobiznes Volochysk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ahrobiznes Volochysk and 0.9 for Probiy Horodenka (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ahrobiznes Volochysk are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.90 for Probiy Horodenka. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Probiy Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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