Today / Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa / Qarabag vs Sabah

Qarabag vs Sabah Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:30

Qarabag

PPG 2.14 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sabah

PPG 2.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.9%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.6%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

Draw 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -15.2%

Away win 29.1% 28.2% 3.55 +3.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 3.5 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -7.3%

BTTS 50.3% 54.6% 1.83 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.3%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–1✓ 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qarabag1.4

Sabah1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

QARABAG · PPG 2.14

SABAH · PPG 2.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.14) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.54)

Win probability 1X2

Qarabag (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.2%

Sabah (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qarabag face Sabah in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qarabag a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Sabah 29%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Qarabag and 1.1 for Sabah (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qarabag are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.54 for Sabah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Qarabag vs Sabah Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Predictions