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Remo vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 23:30

Remo

PPG 0.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sao Paulo

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.5%0-27.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.5%2-17.2%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 36.5% 2.74 -1.4%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Away win 36.2% 40.0% 2.50 -9.5%

Over 2.5 50.3% 50.0% 2.00 +0.6%

Over 3.5 30.3% 28.2% 3.55 +7.6%

BTTS 55.3% 57.1% 1.75 -3.2%

Home O1.5 31.0% 39.2% 2.55 -20.9%

Away O1.5 38.1% 41.7% 2.40 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.3%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0✓ 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Remo1.1

Sao Paulo1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REMO · PPG 0.88

SAO PAULO · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.88), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Remo (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -1.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

Sao Paulo (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Remo face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Remo a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Sao Paulo 36%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Remo and 1.3 for Sao Paulo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Remo are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.89 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Remo vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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