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Cruzeiro vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 23:30

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fluminense

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.4%0-25.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.5%1-111.9%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.4%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.8%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 49.5% 2.02 -21.6%

Draw 25.0% 30.3% 3.30 -10.5%

Away win 36.2% 27.8% 3.60 +30.3%

Over 2.5 54.5% 50.0% 2.00 +9.0%

Over 3.5 34.4% 28.2% 3.55 +22.1%

BTTS 56.5% 55.6% 1.80 +1.7%

Home O1.5 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

Away O1.5 40.8% 32.3% 3.10 +26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.5%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.0%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro1.4

Fluminense1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.67

FLUMINENSE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -21.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.5%

Fluminense (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro face Fluminense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Fluminense 36%, so Cruzeiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cruzeiro and 1.4 for Fluminense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Fluminense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Cruzeiro vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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