Palermo vs Cesena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Italy - Serie B Regular Season - 35 Stadio Renzo Barbera· Palermo Saturday, April 18, 2026 15:15

Palermo PPG 2.35

2-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Cesena PPG 1.24

Home· +24.2% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Palermo face Cesena in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palermo a 81% chance, the draw 13% and Cesena 6%, so Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Palermo and 0.6 for Cesena (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palermo are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.24 for Cesena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 81.2%

Odds: 1.53 EV: +24.2%

Draw 12.9%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -47.1%

Away 5.9%

Odds: 5.80 EV: -65.8%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.4% Odds: 1.70 +6.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% Odds: 2.80 +12.6%

BTTS 40.9% Odds: 1.75 -28.4%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✔

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 4-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Palermo

2.64

Cesena

0.58

Model SuggestionHome +24.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 6.9%

Bet Hit 59% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.35), Away AVERAGE (1.24) - Strong consensus