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Palermo vs Cesena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:15

Palermo

PPG 2.35 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cesena

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 81.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+24.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.3%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.5%1-16.1%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.2%3-17.1%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.2%4+-18.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.2% 65.4% 1.53 +24.2%

Draw 12.9% 24.4% 4.10 -47.1%

Away win 5.9% 17.2% 5.80 -65.8%

Over 2.5 62.4% 58.8% 1.70 +6.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 35.7% 2.80 +12.6%

BTTS 40.9% 57.1% 1.75 -28.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.9%

H 81% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.9%

#2 3–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palermo2.6

Cesena0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PALERMO · PPG 2.35

CESENA · PPG 1.24

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.35), Away AVERAGE (1.24) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Palermo (H) 81.2%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +24.2%

Draw 12.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -47.1%

Cesena (A) 5.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -65.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palermo face Cesena in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palermo a 81% chance, the draw 13% and Cesena 6%, so Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Palermo and 0.6 for Cesena (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palermo are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.24 for Cesena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Palermo vs Cesena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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