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Carrarese vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:30

Carrarese

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Empoli

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.3%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-111.8%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 40.8% 2.45 +15.6%

Draw 26.6% 34.5% 2.90 -13.7%

Away win 26.2% 34.5% 2.90 -14.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 29.0% 25.0% 4.00 +9.6%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 48.1% 40.0% 2.50 +20.3%

Away O1.5 30.7% 33.3% 3.00 -7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carrarese1.6

Empoli1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CARRARESE · PPG 1.27

EMPOLI · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Carrarese (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +15.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.7%

Empoli (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carrarese face Empoli in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carrarese a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Empoli 26%, so Carrarese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Carrarese and 1.0 for Empoli (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carrarese are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.87 for Empoli. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Carrarese vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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