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Ascoli vs Benevento Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:15

Ascoli

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Benevento

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.5%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-112.0%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 43.5% 2.30 +12.7%

Draw 26.5% 33.3% 3.00 -12.3%

Away win 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 48.1% 2.08 +5.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 47.4% 44.4% 2.25 +6.7%

Away O1.5 30.5% 36.4% 2.75 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ascoli1.6

Benevento1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ASCOLI · PPG 1.42

BENEVENTO · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ascoli (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +12.7%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.3%

Benevento (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ascoli face Benevento in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ascoli a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Benevento 25%, so Ascoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ascoli and 1.0 for Benevento (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ascoli are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.50 for Benevento. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +15.4%.

Ascoli vs Benevento Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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