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Juve Stabia vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Juve Stabia

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

UPCOMING

Pisa

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 46% chance

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+12.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.4%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 35.7% 2.80 +28.5%

Draw 27.4% 35.7% 2.80 -14.0%

Away win 26.7% 38.2% 2.62 -18.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 44.4% 2.25 +12.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 50.0% 52.4% 1.91 -4.5%

Home O1.5 39.9% 33.3% 3.00 +19.7%

Away O1.5 26.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juve Stabia1.5

Pisa1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVE STABIA · PPG 1.63

PISA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juve Stabia (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +28.5%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.0%

Pisa (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juve Stabia face Pisa in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juve Stabia a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Pisa 27%, so Juve Stabia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Juve Stabia and 1.0 for Pisa (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juve Stabia are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.50 for Pisa. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +39.0%.

Juve Stabia vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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