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Modena vs Avellino Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Modena

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Avellino

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.6%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.3%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 22.8% 22.7% 4.40 +0.2%

Over 2.5 51.1% 48.1% 2.08 +6.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 25.0% 4.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Modena1.7

Avellino0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MODENA · PPG 1.53

AVELLINO · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Modena (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Avellino (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Modena face Avellino in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Modena a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Avellino 23%, so Modena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Modena and 0.9 for Avellino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Modena are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.08 for Avellino. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.5%.

Modena vs Avellino Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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